Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Bad, Bad News

Am I the only one who is worried about Oracle, with their fortress of death mindset, buying Sun, which coincidentally owns MySQL?  I can't see Larry Ellison being all fatherly to the little Open Source Database that could, considering that MySQL's continued existence is a major barrier to Oracle being a more major player on the web front.

Now, let's look at the possible outcomes of this little merger from MySQL's perspective:
  • MySQL as a corporate focus is de-emphasised to the point that they are to Oracle what Netscape was to AOL. The corporate version eventually dies, as Netscape did.  The silver lining is that the source code is already open, so it won't require the hail-mary pass that Netscape threw to the Mozilla foundation to give us a new and free OurSQL or whatever the fork ends up being called.  However, consider the interregnum between the death of Netscape and the rise of Firefox, and the ground that the beloved 'fox still has to make up against IE.  We can expect the same sort of thing; an era of Oracle dominance (or at least ascension) until the new Open Source RDBMS gains traction.
  • Another MySQL death scenario: a battle of FOSS databases. PostGRESQL vs. SQLite vs. who the heck knows all else.  the Open Source community is balkanized and again, we get a period of Oracle  (and SQL Server) ascension while the free systems sort themselves out.
  • Alternately, Oracle lets MySQL live.  Corporate pricing for service goes up to be in line with what they charge for their Oracle database product.  Upside: Free MySQL doesn't die; downside: paid MySQL suddenly gets a lot of proprietary addons that the free version doesn't see. This is already happening just with Sun. How much worse is Oracle going to be?
I could be completely wrong. Oracle could just see the value in Sun's line of products, and might be intelligent enough to leave them alone and just make money off of them.  But somehow I doubt it.

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